In preparation for our course in March, please read through these ten pages of notes. The (optional) material below comes from a five-week course on "probability" which I teach at Kellogg. Please feel ...

Learn how prior probability informs economic theory and decision-making in Bayesian statistics. Understand its role before collecting new data.

Tools like ChatGPT might seem to speak your language, but they actually speak a language of probability and educated guesswork. You can make yourself better understood — and get more professional ...

The basic principle of probability applies to a near infinite parade of situations. Basically, analysts use probability as a means of determining the likelihood of outcomes and occurrences given a ...

Clay Halton was a Business Editor at Investopedia and has been working in the finance publishing field for more than five years. He also writes and edits personal finance content, with a focus on ...

Life is uncertain. None of us know what is going to happen. We know little of what has happened in the past or is happening now outside our immediate experience. Uncertainty has been called the ...

In A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities, published in 1814, Pierre-Simon Laplace introduced a notorious hypothetical creature: a “vast intelligence” that knew the complete physical state of the ...